RS3 Drop Rate Calculator
How dry are you, really? Enter the drop rate and your kill count to see the odds you should have it by now, and how many kills it takes to be 50%, 90% or 99% sure. Ironmen can't buy the drop, so this is the grind.
At least one in 1,000
18.13%
Still dry
81.87%
Chance of no drop yet
Expected drops
0.20
Exactly one
16.38%
| Chance of at least one drop | Kills needed |
|---|---|
| 50% | 3,466 |
| 90% | 11,512 |
| 99% | 23,024 |
Each kill is treated as an independent roll at 0.02% per kill. Drops with bad-luck protection or a guaranteed threshold are rarer than this, not more common.
Frequently asked
- How do you calculate the chance of getting a drop?
- For a 1/X drop, the chance of at least one drop in N kills is 1 − (1 − 1/X)^N. After X kills of a 1/X drop you have about a 63.2% chance, not 100%.
- How many kills for a 90% chance at a 1/1000 drop?
- About 2,302 kills. In general you need roughly 0.69 × X kills for 50%, 2.3 × X for 90% and 4.6 × X for 99%.
- Does going dry make the next drop more likely?
- No. Unless the drop has bad-luck mitigation, every kill is an independent roll: past kills do not change the odds of the next one.
- How do drop-rate boosts work in the calculator?
- Enter the boost as a percentage and the calculator multiplies the per-kill chance by it (a +10% boost turns 1/1,000 into 1.1/1,000). Only use a boost you know applies to that drop.
More Ironman tools
XP Calculator →XP between any two levels (to 120, or 150 for Invention), actions needed and time at your XP/hr.Time to Max →XP left to 99 and 120 in every skill, prefilled from the hiscores, with an ETA at your rates.Goal Planner →Set skill targets and share the plan as a link. No account needed.Ironman Prayer Calculator →How many bones or ashes to reach your Prayer goal: counted in drops, not coins.